Get your timing right(part-2)

The past seven years' date-wise trend of the Sensex and major equity funds clearly suggests that between the 23rd of a month and the 2nd of the next month, the Sensex is lower than during the balance period.

The reason, to some extent, can be attributed to the expiry of futures contracts on the last Thursday of each month, which can lead to selling, to close positions in the market.

Once the futures expiry is complete, the market starts consolidating again, inflating the Sensex and NAV values.

We observed the NAV behaviour of four equity funds - HDFC Top 200, Reliance Vision, Pru ICICI Growth and Franklin India Blue-chip. As is evident from the adjacent table, the NAV trend for the mutual funds under observation is similar to the Sensex trend. This indicates that an investor planning to go in for a SIP has to understand the trend and then take the plunge.

The trend in the years prior to '03-04 is similar to that of the Sensex. In all the earlier years from '00-01 to '02-03, investors would have made a saving if they had invested between the 23rd of the month to the 2nd of the next month. So, plan well and make sure to maximise your returns!

HOW DO SIPs WORK?

SIPs work on the premise of rupee cost averaging. Even seasoned investors find it difficult to predict the ups and downs of the stock market. Hence, the best resort is to go in for a disciplined way of buying units on a monthly or quarterly basis.

By doing so, investors can avoid the temptation of timing their investment. 'Market timing' is an activity that is best left to professionals. Moreover, the way to weather market cycles is to invest throughout the cycle, so that the investor automatically ends up buying more units at lower NAVs and lesser units at higher NAVs. Therefore, on a net basis, investors will be able to average out their unit costs over a period of time.

Get your timing right(part-1)

“While going in for a SIP, choose dates during the fag end of the month or very early during the month. This can help you get units at lower NAVs”

The Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) route is often suggested as the best way for retail investors to invest in equity funds. This is because it cuts the element of 'timing' by allowing investors to accumulate units systematically over a period of time.

ET Investor's Guide suggests an even better investment strategy - while going in for the SIP route, choose dates during the fag end of the month or very early during the month. If history is any indication, this method can help investors get units at lower let asset values (NAVs).

In the last six out of seven years, Sensex values, on an average, have been lower during the 23rd of a month to the 2nd of the next month. The situation was no different when a similar study was performed across equity funds.

Normally, there are 3-4 possible entry dates (mostly 1st, 7th, and 10th, 15th, 20th or 25th of a month) that an investor can choose from, to invest in any mutual fund for SIP requirements. Depending on the NAV as of the investment date, the investor is allotted units to his credit. By following the above investment strategy, investors are expected to generate maximum returns over the long term. On an average, investors will get units at a lower NAV than otherwise.
There is a clear trend in the way NAVs of the equity market and equity funds behave during the end of a month, as opposed to their behaviour during the middle of the month.